Climate change in your area?

Over the course of this summer I went up the Mackenzie River to Inuvik just south of the Arctic Ocean. A week later we drove through the Yukon and up the Dempster Highway to Inuvik and flew up to Tuktoyaktuk.

In a word; rain! In what should be one of the more arid areas of the world, it has been an exceedingly wet summer. The captain of the boat on the Mackenzie River said he had not seen so much rain or flooding in all his years on the river. A guide in Dawson City said the area, for that time of year, should be dry and brown but it was a lush Irish green.

We are told that as the Arctic warms the moist Pacific air that traditionally hit Alaska is drawn around that state and is coming down the Mackenzie Valley.

Earlier in the year an English friend was to write me that April was one of the driest on record. We all know what happened there in June.

During our absence we had a black bear captured in our yard. Yellowknife has seen a number of such bears wander into town over the summer. Wildlife officials say the warmer weather sees both cougars and grizzlies coming into the north displacing the black bears which come here to seek new territory.

It would be interesting to see if other people in this geographically diverse forum are also noting marked changes in their weather.

We notice it most in long term changes, having lived in the same place for over 30 years. Kodiak city is located more or less on the margin of the Sitka spruce/rain forest climatic area, with alder brush and grassland dominating and transitioning to tundra. When we first moved here in 1975 the alder fields were much less extensive and the individual shrubs weren't all that big. Small spruce saplings were scattered here and there away from the main forests, but more of a novelty.

Now, 30 years later, alders qualify more as trees than shrubs and have moved into vast areas where they have never grown before. And those scattered spruce saplings have grown and spread into isolated groves and even small forests in their own right. Imagine walking among knee-high spruce miles from the forest 30 years ago, and walking under the same trees today.

This points out the value of your old photos- culls or not. I have before and after photos that clearly demonstrate the "march" of the forests.

Along the same lines, evidently the military did a bunch of low elevation U2 flights in other areas of Alaska in the 1950's. Not that you needed a U2 to capture the shots, but even then the technology used allowed the photos to be keyed to very specific locations. Today an effort is under way to compare vegetation then with the same locations today. Talk about a gold mine! Makes me wish I'd kept a location log for my old shots and encourages me to get the cord to allow plugging my D2X into my handheld GPS for recording location in EXIF data as a matter of course. Another potential gold mine for future generations.

David - I live near Washington DC (for the last 10 years), and haven't noticed anything significant over the last year or so. Usual heat, rain, snow, etc.

In any case though, I would also caution people against drawing any conclusion whatsoever about climate change based on single years (or even several over years), or based on their own perception without any data. People are notoriously bad at recalling things correctly (things like how much rain you've had over several years, or statements you'll hear like "it's never been so hot here before" - odds are you just don't remember correctly or don't have enough data).

Now that's not to say that events you witness, such as the bears moving north, aren't the result of climate change - just that there's absolutely no way to know, without careful tracking and data analysis over multiple years worth of time.

No real changes here in Florida - summers have always been miserably hot and humid, and sure enough they still are!!!

A lot of been made in the media about the increased water temps in the Gulf over the last few years (ie, evidence of Global Warming, etc.), but what they don't seem to elaborate on is that these warmer Gulf temps today are still cooler than they were in the early 1900's. Gulf temps are always been on a multi year cycle, and I assume they will continue on that cycle regardless of media attention.

Is mankind making a mess of the environment? You betcha, but keep in mind that not everything you read is totally truthful and unbiased either.

First a word of warning - "climate" is not "weather". Weather is short term & local while climate is long-term and over larger areas (so "it's been the hottest summer ever in my town, this must be climate change" is a flawed arguement, as is "it's been that cold this winter, climate change must be a myth"). So far, so good... some subjective impressions now...

I'm not very old (23 years of age), but if I try to remember my childhood, I think that July/August were usually THE summer months here in Switzerland. This seems to have shifted. We now have regularly very nice spring (Mai, June, sometimes even April are really warm, and the transition from winter weather to summer temperature is very short & brusque), while formerly beautiful August has become very rainy, and we've had multiple floods in recent years due to severe rain in August. Is that climate change? No idea. Maybe, maybe not.

Most glaciers in the alps are shrinking (well, melting faster than they grow), and that's been a continous trend for a while. I think this is more of an indication that something's going on than anything else (since it's a process that happens during a longer period).

In any case, my belief is that no matter what causes the changes that people seem to be observing (humans alone, nature alone or both in a joint effort), minimizing emission of greenhouse gases by reduction of consumption and development of suitable technology (solar energy, geothermy) should be a goal since in the end, it can only be beneficial for us. Be it thanks to improved air/water/food quality due to reduced environmental pollution, thanks to the fact that our homes are not destroyed by landslides (a serious problem here in Switzerland), or thanks to the fact that the coastal lands we're living on isn't flooded (a serious problem for small islands and in south east asia). Or simply because our children can still enjoy the beauty of that planet instead of only seeing ice bears and coral reefs as bizzarre relics of the past on photos that are being taken today.

I got carried away. Sorry for that.

Basil

I spent some time in the Yukon / Dawson City this summer as well, and it was wet! The Yukon River was topped out, and lots of flooding across the Territory.

I don't know how much of the rain can be attributed to global warming - but the rapid melting of the glaciers around my home town certainly can. Winters in Alaska are just not near as cold as they used to be many years ago, and summer are often warmer - it is sunny and warm right now. I think the further north you go, the more obvious the effects of global warming.

As you said, very wet summer here in Britain: it rained almost every day here for a couple of months; only had any `summery` weather the last two weeks.
Springs seem to be coming sooner, with flowers blooming earlier.
Southern bird species are beginning to colonise Britain from southern Europe; species at the south of their natural distribution range are retreating northwards. Winters are warmer, with a lot less snow than formerly.

Well said Basil.

While one year doesn't make a trend, there are certainly some disturbing things going on in my corner of the natural world. According to some sources, parts of the Rockies in the west and southwest received annual rainfall exceeding evidence of the last 1000 years of rain fall from the 80's to the mid-90's followed by years of intermitent or ongoing drought. This has resulted in pine beetle kill that is heartbreaking in some parts of Colorado. There are some areas in the northern part of the state that have up to 70% of the pine trees dead. And similar conditions seem to exist in the pinion pine forests further south. Some of the tree experts say this could very well be a good thing for rejuvination of the forests in the long run, but this could take generations, and is certainly not natural variation within any time in recent history.

Basil said things better than I could. Without leading an extremely very spartan life (by our western standards I suppose), I'm extremely concious of what and how much I consume and how it affects my footprint on the planet. Maybe this isn't the cause or all of the solution, but I'm willing to hedge my bets in hopes that the next generations will be able to take some of nature's beauty into their hearts. In a troubled world it is sometimes the best inspiration for peace and natural order one can find.

To steal from Bill....Well said Basil. I hope I didn't imply that I disagree with what Basil said - only that anecdotes aren't very reliable.

Wow...this is quite the topic, but it has been on my mind a lot in the last year. I recently took a physical geography course and the prof bascially said that things are changing, and scientists have always "known" this but they now have the proof they needed. He also said we will continue to hear more about it as the years go on. However, it is hard for the layman to distinguish between the weather one year and overall climate change. As said previously, here in Colorado the "weather" has alternated between being really hot and dry (last year) and like this summer really wet. But I have noticed the snow is gone more quickly on the front range of the Rockies. In particular, Mt. Evans, which is very prominent here in Denver has always had a small glacier that stayed all summer...but the last few years it has almost entirely disappeared. It does make one wonder. They say the same thing about Kilamanjaro. I've also read articles, as stated before, that animals are showing up where they normally never were...one being mallards in Greenland. People living up north (those of you in Alaska) are going to notice change sooner than people more toward the equator (can't remember the reason why). But the Sahara wasn't always a desert and that was before pollution....so again how do scientists determine what is normal change....or I should I say "natural" change. My basic opinion is that one can't say that humans haven't had an effect, that would be impossible, but how quickly it's happening compared to what would be considered "natural" is another story...but statistics show there is a trend. As you probably all know about the Al Gore movie, it's pretty dead on to what is happening...if you haven't seen it then you should. There isn't any precedent for this kind of thing because there's only been one Industrial Revolution in human history...it's taken only 100 years for us to "cause" whatever it is. The science is there, and to completely discount it would be denial. But I guess the jist of all this is...I think we've noticed something, but is it because we are observant nature photographers or because of media attention to global warming that is making us more aware or "suspicious" of it than what is actually occurring. I would like to think we are really noticing the trend.

Cynthia Spence
www.geolightphoto.com

In Oregon, west of the cascades...we've had a little cooler weather than in recent averages. The thing I find a little odd this year, is that we have our Oaks and Vine Maples turrning Autumn colors a good 4 weeks earlier than what I personally remember in recent years. Anybody else notice anything like that in their neck of the woods?

Cynthia siad;

As you probably all know about the Al Gore movie, it's pretty dead on to what is happening.

Actually, the movie is a lot of hype - especially the graph "The Goracle" uses. No doubt there is climate change going on, no doubt some/much of it our doing, but you really need to be aware of some of the glaring hype/mis-statements in the movie. Some long and gory threads on this topic can be found here and here. Both of these threads are still open.

Let's keep this thread about our own personal observations of weather/climate change.

Rick Lundh wrote:

Oaks and Vine Maples turrning Autumn colors a good 4 weeks earlier than what I personally remember in recent years. Anybody else notice anything like that in their neck of the woods?

Rick, it's funny you should mention that. A couple of weeks ago I noticed a couple of large flocks of birds. I thought mid-August was awfully early for birds to start flocking. I can't say it means anything, it just seemed odd.

I just got back from Michigan and several people there told me that the winters don't snow the way they used to 10 - 20 years ago. One guy said how the winters used to be pure white for months at a time and how he used to go inner tubing in his front yard. Whereas now it might for a few days then thaw out.

And well as for personal observations, we've never really had distinct seasons in California. But this year we did have a record low for rainfall. Two years ago was a record high with 60 something inches.

As a child, I remember 4th of July as awefully hot and humid - to the point that I didn't want to be outdoors. More recently, our summers don't seem as hot, but summer seems to last a bit longer. So overall, summer seems less hot but a little longer, at least here on Long Island.

Where I live the weather is so volatile day to day that I really haven't noticed anything at all. I remember several instances where it was 80 degrees one day, and I woke up to snow on the ground the next. Last year it was nearly 90 degrees on the opening day of rifle/antelope season. Five years ago it was 7 degrees. Go figure. As for actual climate change, I can remember 40 years ago when I was five years old, the snow was waist deep to me. Now it's only knee deep.


Kent in SD

Michigan's climate has been dryer over the past few years. We've had less snow and it's not been as cold here during the winters either. Spring flowers bloom a week or two earlier than I remember 30 or so years ago as well.

Richard, what brought you to Michigan?

I haven't noticed too much difference in temperature or length of seasons, they seem to vary from year to year but within a normal range. I have noticed a significant difference in the violence, strength and frequency of the lightning storms and accompanying winds.

Richard....I always thought there were four distinct seasons in California ---Earthquake, Brush Fire, Mud Slide and Riot !!!!!!!

While there may be some contribution from long-term climate change, most of the weather in any area is cyclical. I live in northeastern Illinois, just south of the Wisconsin/Illinois stateline. In 2004, it rained so much that the Des Plaines River flooded onto Rt. 41 near Wadsworth and inundated the town of Gurnee. I live just east of Gurnee. Rt. 41 was shut off at Delaney Rd and all traffic was rerouted. I had a wonderful spring and summer photographing the masses of wildflowers that grew and blossomed abundantly in my area that year I was shooting film -- I hadn't bought a digital camera as yet -- and all of that stuff lies waiting to be scanned. Then in 2005, I moved out of Chicago to the northern suburbs and changed to a digital camera for the speed and convenience, and 2005 was one of the hottest driest summers I've seen in a long time. I was working at an ag-related company then and could talk to farmers all over the country. People in the Dakotas told me that it was so wet they couldn't plant crops. People in Utah told me they were worried about flash floods. People in Nebraska were concerned about floods in one area and prairie wildfires in another. In 2006, everything seemed relatively normal again, including the winter. This year, a heavy downpour flooded a railroad underpass that I go through on my way home from work -- flooded it to 9 feet in two hours. Rt. 41 was shut down, to clear the underpass and I couldn;t even get on the interstate. There were cars backed up past the stateline. That was in April. In August, southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois had massive, constant downpours and the Des Plaines River flooded again, and still hasn't gone down in the seven days since the rain stopped. I went out with my camera last weekend to get some pictures and found that there is not one domestic honeybee to be found, the songbirds had gone away, and the bullrushes in the wetlands that I go to are now well over eight feet tall. My cats have all developed the thickest coats I have ever seen on any of them, as if winter is coming early and will be extremely harsh. I've also noticed that the geese and ducks, which normally have their training flights this time of year, have just disappeared, although I did see two flights of geese last night when I went to the bank.
I'm sure that a part of it is global warming. When 100,000-year-old ice sheets on the northern cost of Canada break away from their moorings and glaciers in Patagonia at the southern tip of South America melt back by some 9 miles from their normal leading edge and don't recover, then yes, global warming is at the root of it. And when local native Inuit and Aleut say they can't get out and hunt seal, and they're losing tribe members to drowning when the sea ice breaks and they drop through it, and they have other anecdotal evidence that says things are changing, I believe that global warming is the cause.
It may be that local weather that seems strange (not like it was when I was a kid) is a symptom of a long-term change, but it also goes in cycles. I recently found my grandfather's diary. His 1888 entries were all about the weather -- a terrible blizzard sweeping through Wisconsin and burying everything in snow, and that was the Great Blizzard of 1888 moving rapidly from the Great Plains, through the Midwest, and into New York, leaving a lot of deaths in its wake. In 1967 and 1978, the same kind of weather swept through the Midwest and brought Chicago to a grinding halt. The same thing happened in 1993; a superstorm blew through the Midwest, dumped some snow on us, then moved on to the east coast trapping people on a hike in Georgia, and shutting down New York and Washington, D.C. On the opposite side of the coin, in 1995, a killer heat wave went through the Midwest and 525 people in Chicago died from heat-related causes. A year later, 27,000 people in France died from the same thing. And let's not forget that the winter of 2006-2007 dumped over 14 feet of snow on the eastern part of New York state.
I do think that the long-term progress of global warming will make the weather everywhere become more and more intense, but I also think that it will still remain cyclical. If you really have questions that need an answer, there is a website called "Real Climate" that is completed oriented around climate change, run by scientists, and is constantly updated.

After six weeks, it has stopped raining in Yellowknife!

Sorry if I overstated the Al Gore Movie, but some of it matched what I was learning in my physical geography class...didn't mean to step on anyone's toes...and not all of what I was stating I got from the movie...most from the class...and reading material....didn't realize it had been such a heated debate before.

I have notice fall color already in Denver...little patches on trees...very early for 5500 ft. in elevation.

Cynthia Spence
Denver, CO

I have lived in CO for the last 17 or so years and prior to that in CA. I turned 57 this last August – too short a time to measure anything other my own actions. I am not a climatologist or whatever that brand of science is called. All I know is this; we have observed four seasons in CO, sometimes before lunch! That is three more seasons than I observe in 40 years living in CA! I say that only to punctuate that “before lunch” is a mere millisecond in time regarding climate change.

Al Gore is a politician. I don't believe anything any politician says about anything, period! That global climate is in a warming trend I agree– that is nothing new. It has also gone through cooling trends – also nothing new. We need to separate the political hot air (a more likely source of "global warming") from the science which also has only been studied for a few milliseconds of climactic time. So to Al I say, you did not invent the internet sir, but you and your Hollywood buddies did invent “Global Warming” so respectfully I ask ”sit down and be quiet!” Why should your voice be any louder than any one else’s? Oh! Maybe if I turn off the TV that would deter further global warming!

Before anyone flames me, I believe we must be responsible stewards of creation and all that it entails.
John