Well, the storm is just now taking shape off the Calif coast, but sure looks cold on satellite imagery, and the jet stream is just screaming. I think there's a good chance the front range could get pounded with the last big snow of winter by Monday morning, maybe a foot or more in some spots. Spring?--hah! Im already planning to head out early tuesday morning for some post-blizzard shots. Hope to see some of you out there!
Posted by Timothy Tonge on March 16, 2008 at 10:49 AM
Snow a good bet, and yes foothills should do well... last snow of winter, one could hope but I doubt it!!!
Posted by Todd Caudle on March 16, 2008 at 1:26 PM
Why wait til Tuesday? I'm heading out tomorrow, for where, I still don't know. Looks like it's gonna be a doozy. Last snow? Not bloody likely!
I said last big snow of winter, i said nothing about spring!
Still looks good for a foot or more in some spots--winds wont be quite as strong as they had looked, but will be nasty enough tomoorow morn! Todd, i would head out Monday, but gotta work, so ill have to shoot cleanup on Tue. You may want to go somewhere where late afternoon light is good
Posted by Craig Schultz on March 17, 2008 at 1:57 PM
Where is all that snow!!! Man I wish I could be wrong as often as the weather people in this state at my day job.
Unbelievable; 6 hours from the storm hitting we are supposed to get 8-12inches. We only got a dusting in southern Denver.
Craig, cant speak for northern Colorado, but as far as southeastern Colorado is concerned, we definitely got a little less than i expected, thanks to the storm falling apart in the last 24 hours, but from reports it seems pretty clear that parts of the Wets got around 10 inches, so not too far off from the foot i expected. Looks like Jefferson Co also got in the 9 inch range. If you'd like, come on down to our office in Pueblo and id be happy to explain to you how challenging it is to forecast weather in the Rocky Mountains, and why i dont feel guilty being paid to be "wrong"
Posted by Craig Schultz on March 17, 2008 at 6:29 PM
Opps, sorry I forgot you were one of those forecasters
I'm sure it's tough, but when 9 news and WB2 news both say the snow will start in about 3 hours and by morning you'll have 3-6 inches on the ground, I tend to believe them. How close does the storm have to be before it's a done deal?
I'd love to hear why this storm failed to materialize if you care to share.
I cant comment on how the news teams forecast this event, since they can chose to do their own forecast or use some or all of National Weather Service forecasts (i work for the NWS). But I will give you my take on the storm: It did materialize for us, since Cuchara got over a foot of snow, and i mentioned probably a good portion of the Wets got close to that. We even got 4+ inches in Pueblo, which may not sound like much but it was one of the biggest storms this winter for us!
But apparently it didnt materialize for everyone, so here's why:
This storm was extremely complex and difficult to forecast. To give you an idea of how difficult, one of our primary computer models was predicting over 14 inches of snow for Pueblo by this morning. Obviously, it was out to lunch, so we had to rely completely on human methods (experience&training) to do the forecasting for this storm. To put it as simply as possible, the storm was basically divided between a northern system and a southern low pressure system. Most of this past week, computer guidance suggested the northern section would be strong enough to seriously affect northeast Colorado, and for us the Palmer Divide (monument hill) was a huge concern. This did not happen, as the "northern" storm basically fell apart as it hit the Rocky Mountains. It's next to impossible to know for sure how the storm will react until it actually reaches the mountains, so as you saw it can be a matter of hours before we know for sure how it's going to materialize. As you might imagine, it is better to err on the side of caution, cause we get beat up pretty bad by the public and the media if we predict not much snow and a blizzard ends up shutting down I-25!
The other problem with this storm is that most of the snow/rain was driven by convection (like thunderstorms in the summer), which is typical of a March storm. So, like thunderstorms, it's basically impossible to determine exactly where they will hit until they actually materialize. In this storm, there were very narrow bands of precipitation so that some areas got a fair amount of snow, while a few miles away you might have got nothing. So, whether it snowed in one exact location does not dictate how strong the storm was, what matters is the overall accumulations, spread out over a wide area. The "Catch 22" for forecasters like myself is that the public demands "deterministic" information, ie., how much snow will fall at their house. The reality of situations like this is that snowfall could be anywhere from 1" to 12+", depending on how the showers set up. But the public isn't very happy with ranges like "1-12 inches", so we're stuck with giving them our best guess, which will be perceived as wrong by those who it misses, right by those who it hits. Of course, the "misses" are the ones that people tend to remember! Hope that shed some light.
Discussion
8 repliesStill looks good for a foot or more in some spots--winds wont be quite as strong as they had looked, but will be nasty enough tomoorow morn! Todd, i would head out Monday, but gotta work, so ill have to shoot cleanup on Tue. You may want to go somewhere where late afternoon light is good
Unbelievable; 6 hours from the storm hitting we are supposed to get 8-12inches. We only got a dusting in southern Denver.
I'm sure it's tough, but when 9 news and WB2 news both say the snow will start in about 3 hours and by morning you'll have 3-6 inches on the ground, I tend to believe them. How close does the storm have to be before it's a done deal?
I'd love to hear why this storm failed to materialize if you care to share.
Craig
I cant comment on how the news teams forecast this event, since they can chose to do their own forecast or use some or all of National Weather Service forecasts (i work for the NWS). But I will give you my take on the storm: It did materialize for us, since Cuchara got over a foot of snow, and i mentioned probably a good portion of the Wets got close to that. We even got 4+ inches in Pueblo, which may not sound like much but it was one of the biggest storms this winter for us!
But apparently it didnt materialize for everyone, so here's why:
This storm was extremely complex and difficult to forecast. To give you an idea of how difficult, one of our primary computer models was predicting over 14 inches of snow for Pueblo by this morning. Obviously, it was out to lunch, so we had to rely completely on human methods (experience&training) to do the forecasting for this storm. To put it as simply as possible, the storm was basically divided between a northern system and a southern low pressure system. Most of this past week, computer guidance suggested the northern section would be strong enough to seriously affect northeast Colorado, and for us the Palmer Divide (monument hill) was a huge concern. This did not happen, as the "northern" storm basically fell apart as it hit the Rocky Mountains. It's next to impossible to know for sure how the storm will react until it actually reaches the mountains, so as you saw it can be a matter of hours before we know for sure how it's going to materialize. As you might imagine, it is better to err on the side of caution, cause we get beat up pretty bad by the public and the media if we predict not much snow and a blizzard ends up shutting down I-25!
The other problem with this storm is that most of the snow/rain was driven by convection (like thunderstorms in the summer), which is typical of a March storm. So, like thunderstorms, it's basically impossible to determine exactly where they will hit until they actually materialize. In this storm, there were very narrow bands of precipitation so that some areas got a fair amount of snow, while a few miles away you might have got nothing. So, whether it snowed in one exact location does not dictate how strong the storm was, what matters is the overall accumulations, spread out over a wide area. The "Catch 22" for forecasters like myself is that the public demands "deterministic" information, ie., how much snow will fall at their house. The reality of situations like this is that snowfall could be anywhere from 1" to 12+", depending on how the showers set up. But the public isn't very happy with ranges like "1-12 inches", so we're stuck with giving them our best guess, which will be perceived as wrong by those who it misses, right by those who it hits. Of course, the "misses" are the ones that people tend to remember! Hope that shed some light.