Posted by Stan Rose on September 25, 2009 at 8:46 PM
Well, ordinarily i wouldnt go out on a limb with this info, but since a lot of people are headed out for fall colors i thought I'd give another heads up on weather. Next best bet for mountain snow (maybe even valley snow) will come Wed-Thu next week (Steve mentioned this in my last post). Probably a fairly quick shot, in the moderate range (4-8 inches) and it will likely hit the Divide more so than the Eastern ranges like the last storm. If i didnt have to work id target Thu or Fri morning for the best shots. Still a long ways off so ill update any major changes here, or if it all falls apart
Another storm close on its heals after that (Oct 5-6) is possible.
Good Luck!
Posted by John Mumaw on September 25, 2009 at 9:50 PM
Thanks!
I really appreciate this service.
Posted by Steven Peckham on September 25, 2009 at 10:18 PM
You would appreciate it more if we were correct, right John?
Actually the forecast models are in quite good agreement up until Wednesday/Thursday so I would trust the forecast up to then. Hopefully the leaves will stay on the trees as well.
Posted by Scott Bacon on September 25, 2009 at 10:49 PM
You guys are awesome! We've got our own personal weather-dudes.
Posted by Momo Vuyisich on September 26, 2009 at 12:41 AM
That's pretty exciting, since my Fall colors trip is the weekend after that storm.
Posted by Paul Wegemann on September 26, 2009 at 10:33 AM
If I don't have to work, this is good news for me. Thanks guys.
Posted by Steven Peckham on September 26, 2009 at 6:34 PM
Don't get too excited about the weekend of 3/4 Oct. just yet. The forecast model solutions are still diverging after Wednesday/early Thursday. The only thing that appears to be consistent is that the large-scale flow will be dropping down the west coast and coming back up towards CO from the southwest. Individual storms and their time of passage is not being agreed upon by the forecast models.
Posted by Morris McClung on September 27, 2009 at 5:30 PM
Thanks to both of you guys for your contributions on this. I think it is very unselfish and generous of both of you to share with us.
Posted by Stan Rose on September 27, 2009 at 7:02 PM
Unselfish? No, i have a very selfish desire to see some awesome photos from next week cause i cant go out and get them myself
I'll append a quick update later this evening--right now it still looks on track as i mentioned in my first post.
Posted by Steven Peckham on September 27, 2009 at 7:58 PM
Yes, start posting those killer fall color shots! This is the week, right?
I would agree with Stan that the models are still on track for Wed/Thurs.. Timing and detail I will leave for Stan as he is a professional forecaster.
I will be interested in what you have to say about the coming weekend as well. ( The 4th is NPN field day and we all should be out in the field this coming weekend.) The storm dropping down into the desert SW for Saturday and might impact Colorado by late in the day or Sunday. The forecast for that storm will be a challenge to get right this far out, but take your best shot.
Posted by Stan Rose on September 27, 2009 at 11:12 PM
Well, the NAM is back in line with the other models now, it doesnt look as promising as it had a few days ago, probably more wind than snow. But i still think the Divide and western ranges should pick up a few inches, and this is a strong storm so there could be some heavier showers and local spots could get surprised with more than a light acumulation. San Juans should get a quick and windy shot with Southwest winds of 50 mph at 10K feet by later Wed. Thu morning the dry air starts moving in, so it could be a bit of a risky morning (plus windy and cold!) but id take the risk. Fri morning looks safer.
Steven, If i had to guess id say the second storm will likely be delayed, the flow gets really amplified after the mid week storm blows through, so id say it looks more Sunday-monday or even later. Both Euro and GFS (two primary global weather models) pull the storm to the north, which again would not be good for Colorado but theres plenty of time for that to change. The southwest flow again should work out ok for the San Juans. Course, by then, all the leaves will be knocked off
Posted by Art Escobado on September 27, 2009 at 11:52 PM
Right on Stan! Thanks so much!
Posted by Steven Peckham on September 28, 2009 at 10:22 AM
Looking at last night's model forecasts, your 1 week local forecast are looking good. Really good agreement in the large scale pattern in all of the long-range guesses. It is unusual to have such a consistent results from different numerical forecasts 1 week ahead of time. I could see this Wed/Thurs storm giving some needed precip west of the divide (as you said), but it really dropping off to the east. Probably just clouds and wind between the foothills and I-25, but wouldn't rule out the stray shower when the front passes by the area.
What I am also seeing is a slow warm-up behind this Wednesday storm. The cool fall air is getting a better grip on the area. Maybe back to 70 for a high by Monday is what the GFS is saying. Could this be the end of the real hot weather in the desert SW already? A week or two early if the pattern holds.
Posted by Stan Rose on September 28, 2009 at 10:50 PM
Looks like the bulk of the snow will fall over the nortwestern part of the state. The San Juans could get a light accumulation on Wednesday and may be worth shooting Thu morning, since it should clear out down there by then. Most of the snow then shifts north of Cottonwood Pass, as the winds turn to the NW on Thu. Might be a bit risky in the northern mountains on Thu since it could stay socked in all day, bu there might be a brief window in the morning--by Fri it should be long gone. If i were able to go, Id go with Nat's recommendation and target Cottonwood. Next storm gets going early Sunday, but the details are pretty shaky for this one. It does look like the San Juans should pick up some healthy snowfall Oct 4-6. Thats all for now..
Discussion
13 repliesAnother storm close on its heals after that (Oct 5-6) is possible.
Good Luck!
I really appreciate this service.
You would appreciate it more if we were correct, right John?
Actually the forecast models are in quite good agreement up until Wednesday/Thursday so I would trust the forecast up to then. Hopefully the leaves will stay on the trees as well.
Don't get too excited about the weekend of 3/4 Oct. just yet. The forecast model solutions are still diverging after Wednesday/early Thursday. The only thing that appears to be consistent is that the large-scale flow will be dropping down the west coast and coming back up towards CO from the southwest. Individual storms and their time of passage is not being agreed upon by the forecast models.
I'll append a quick update later this evening--right now it still looks on track as i mentioned in my first post.
Yes, start posting those killer fall color shots! This is the week, right?
I would agree with Stan that the models are still on track for Wed/Thurs.. Timing and detail I will leave for Stan as he is a professional forecaster.
I will be interested in what you have to say about the coming weekend as well. ( The 4th is NPN field day and we all should be out in the field this coming weekend.) The storm dropping down into the desert SW for Saturday and might impact Colorado by late in the day or Sunday. The forecast for that storm will be a challenge to get right this far out, but take your best shot.
Steven, If i had to guess id say the second storm will likely be delayed, the flow gets really amplified after the mid week storm blows through, so id say it looks more Sunday-monday or even later. Both Euro and GFS (two primary global weather models) pull the storm to the north, which again would not be good for Colorado but theres plenty of time for that to change. The southwest flow again should work out ok for the San Juans. Course, by then, all the leaves will be knocked off
What I am also seeing is a slow warm-up behind this Wednesday storm. The cool fall air is getting a better grip on the area. Maybe back to 70 for a high by Monday is what the GFS is saying. Could this be the end of the real hot weather in the desert SW already? A week or two early if the pattern holds.