Posted by Jack Graham on August 24, 2010 at 11:08 PM
Folks,
I bet a lot of you follow the weather like me in order to get the most out of being in the field and making good images.
Here is the winter prediction for 2010. El Nino is back and in a big way according to Accuweather.
If they are right, and bad weather makes for good photography, then we should be in for some interesting images over the winter! Maybe it will provide for a better wildflower spring.
Check it out!
JG
UPDATE TO 1st POSTING:__FOL Eric got it right its la nina, NOT El Nino
This is from NOAA CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ( take with a grain of salt---thy can't get tomorrow right in a lot cases) but here you go!
__________________________________________
(SON)=Sept, Otcober,Nov
(NDJ)=November, December, January)
(AMJ)=April May June
and so one'''''
THE OUTLOOKS FOR NDJ 2010-11 THROUGH MAM 2011 PRIMARILY REFLECT EXPECTED LA NINA IMPACTS. THE PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ENHANCED IN MOST OF ALASKA, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS - FOR THE LATER LEADS THIS IS SUPPORTED BY TRENDS AS WELL. THE PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ENHANCED IN MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. BY THE PROSPECT OF LA NINA CONDITIONS. THE OUTLOOKS FOR AMJ THROUGH SON 2011 PRIMARILY REFLECT DECADAL VARIABILITY IN THE LONG TERM CLIMATE STATE FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WEST, AND FOR SOME AREAS IN THE NORTHEAST. AN ELEVATED CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN AMJ AND MJJ 2011 REFLECTS RECENT DECADAL VARIABILITY IN THIS REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR ALASKA IN THESE LATER LEADS WHERE AND WHEN WARMING TRENDS HAVE BEEN RELIABLE INDICATORS OF SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR SON 2010 INDICATES INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR AREAS IN THE NORTHWEST AND IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS THE FORMER DUE TO LA NINA, THE LATTER DUE TO LONG TERM TRENDS. LA NINA, WHEN CONSIDERED IN ISOLATION, FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN RAINFALL IN MUCH OF THE SOUTH BUT THIS IS CONTRADICTED IN SOME AREAS BY OTHER TOOLS, FOR EXAMPLE ALONG THE GULF COAST IN AN ACTIVE HURRICANE SEASON. BOTH TRENDS AND LA NINA COMPOSITES AGREE ON INCREASED CHANCES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHWEST AND THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE OUTLOOKS FOR OND 2010 THROUGH MAM 2011 SHOW THE EXPECTED IMPACT OF LA NINA CONDITIONS ON PRECIPITATION. LA NINA CONDITIONS ENHANCE THE PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES IN THE FALL AND WINTER SEASONS AND IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR REGIONS OF THE EASTERN U.S. IN WINTER. PROBABILITIES OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE ENHANCED ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. IN THE WINTER BY THE INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF LA NINA CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. BOTH THE IMPACT OF LA NINA CONDITIONS AND THE CONFIDENCE IN ENSO PREDICTIONS DECREASE IN THE SPRING OF 2011 SUCH THAT THERE IS NO SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES FROM AMJ THROUGH MJJ 2011. DECADAL TRENDS LEAD TO ENHANCED CHANCES OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN FLORIDA AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE LATER LEADS.
Posted by Ned Fenimore on August 24, 2010 at 11:16 PM
Ughhh will make my day job horrible... :)
Posted by Erik Lundh on August 24, 2010 at 11:28 PM
Looks interesting. I don't think it will be a El Nino winter this winter. Last year is when the El Nino kept us warm. You probably meant to say La Nina which is a cooling of the ocean water.
Posted by Jack Graham on August 25, 2010 at 12:45 AM
Eric,
As always----thanks for the correction!
Get your snowshoes ready!
JG
Posted by Bruce King on August 26, 2010 at 2:25 PM
I guess I'll have to add a 4 or 5 stop ND to my arsenal for those wintery mountain shots!
Discussion
4 repliesI bet a lot of you follow the weather like me in order to get the most out of being in the field and making good images.
Here is the winter prediction for 2010. El Nino is back and in a big way according to Accuweather.
If they are right, and bad weather makes for good photography, then we should be in for some interesting images over the winter! Maybe it will provide for a better wildflower spring.
Check it out!
JG
UPDATE TO 1st POSTING:__FOL Eric got it right its la nina, NOT El Nino
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/34891/winter-2011-heavier-snow-for-c.asp
ALSO ADDED TO ORIGIONAL EMAIL
This is from NOAA CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ( take with a grain of salt---thy can't get tomorrow right in a lot cases) but here you go!
__________________________________________
(SON)=Sept, Otcober,Nov
(NDJ)=November, December, January)
(AMJ)=April May June
and so one'''''
THE OUTLOOKS FOR NDJ 2010-11 THROUGH MAM 2011 PRIMARILY REFLECT EXPECTED LA NINA IMPACTS. THE PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ENHANCED IN MOST OF ALASKA, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS - FOR THE LATER LEADS THIS IS SUPPORTED BY TRENDS AS WELL. THE PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ENHANCED IN MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. BY THE PROSPECT OF LA NINA CONDITIONS. THE OUTLOOKS FOR AMJ THROUGH SON 2011 PRIMARILY REFLECT DECADAL VARIABILITY IN THE LONG TERM CLIMATE STATE FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WEST, AND FOR SOME AREAS IN THE NORTHEAST. AN ELEVATED CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN AMJ AND MJJ 2011 REFLECTS RECENT DECADAL VARIABILITY IN THIS REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR ALASKA IN THESE LATER LEADS WHERE AND WHEN WARMING TRENDS HAVE BEEN RELIABLE INDICATORS OF SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR SON 2010 INDICATES INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR AREAS IN THE NORTHWEST AND IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS THE FORMER DUE TO LA NINA, THE LATTER DUE TO LONG TERM TRENDS. LA NINA, WHEN CONSIDERED IN ISOLATION, FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN RAINFALL IN MUCH OF THE SOUTH BUT THIS IS CONTRADICTED IN SOME AREAS BY OTHER TOOLS, FOR EXAMPLE ALONG THE GULF COAST IN AN ACTIVE HURRICANE SEASON. BOTH TRENDS AND LA NINA COMPOSITES AGREE ON INCREASED CHANCES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHWEST AND THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE OUTLOOKS FOR OND 2010 THROUGH MAM 2011 SHOW THE EXPECTED IMPACT OF LA NINA CONDITIONS ON PRECIPITATION. LA NINA CONDITIONS ENHANCE THE PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES IN THE FALL AND WINTER SEASONS AND IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR REGIONS OF THE EASTERN U.S. IN WINTER. PROBABILITIES OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE ENHANCED ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. IN THE WINTER BY THE INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF LA NINA CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. BOTH THE IMPACT OF LA NINA CONDITIONS AND THE CONFIDENCE IN ENSO PREDICTIONS DECREASE IN THE SPRING OF 2011 SUCH THAT THERE IS NO SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES FROM AMJ THROUGH MJJ 2011. DECADAL TRENDS LEAD TO ENHANCED CHANCES OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN FLORIDA AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE LATER LEADS.
As always----thanks for the correction!
Get your snowshoes ready!
JG