Anybody in the know have any info about whether we can expect early, normal, or late autumn color in the eastern Sierra this year, or is it too early to predict?
Posted by Derek Sedillo on August 26, 2010 at 10:20 PM
Tony!!!! You must have read my mind. I was just wondering the same thing and was going to ask for wild guesses. But after last year I don't know if anyone would even want to hazard a guess. North Lake and Bishop Canyon turned early last week in Sept. Then the wind came in and took out many of the leaves. By the time we got there the next week the leaves were pretty much gone around the lake. June Lake and much of the other areas turned much later than normal seasons (~ Oct 15-20). In fact we had our meetup at June Lake with light snow that morning (10/4) and mostly green leaves. But it was still a really fun time.
It's pretty hard to tell what kind of storms and colder weather we'll get until they are right on us. But I have noticed some workshops targeting the second week of Oct. Don't know if I'll be able to make it this year because of some family obligations. But that doesn't stop me from dreamin' about it anyway.
Derek
Posted by Paul Duval on August 26, 2010 at 10:46 PM
Based on weather patterns that have been extant this summer in the Southern Half of the State, and the fact the Monsoon season seems to be about two weeks late this year, we had our first major storms over the last two days, I'm going to take a wild Swag ( Scientific Wild Ass Guess ) and predict a late turn this year maybe even later than last. In fact there was a NWS Flash Flood warning this afternoon that included Badwater Rd. in Death Valley stating that it may be completely washed out. I expect wild and woolly weather in September especially in the Mojave and the Owens Valley.
For what its worth we have had some early spots of color in the Bay Area. There have been a few maples turning in the Regional Parks Botanic Garden in Tilden Park starting a couple of weeks ago. The gardeners believe it may be due to the cool summer followed by some warm days tricking the trees into believing it is September. I also have some native grapes in my yard in Berkeley that have just started to turn. I don't know if this means anything in terms of the High Sierra and the Aspens. I have been collecting all the resources I can find on California fall color and will publish them on my blog: Natural History Wanderings
in the near future. I'll post here when I do.
Steve is correct--it's really kind of a cr*p shoot.
What we could do is start a thread for fall color reports, similar in spirit to the one on the spring bloom.
I'll post it sometime after the first of September in the 'Featured Topics' section at the top of our forum page. Does that woerk for everyone?
--P
Posted by Paul Duval on August 27, 2010 at 6:49 PM
Preston,
That was a great thread last year I think it primed allot of people to get out there that might not have otherwise. The Spring Wildflower thread certainly did that for me.
Paul
Posted by Derek Sedillo on August 27, 2010 at 10:33 PM
Yeah Steve,
In looking back it seemed like the people who caught the best conditions last year were the one's who took several smaller trips. I remember when living in CO I was able to leave the time open more or less. Then when the conditions came together I just made a kamikaze run to the Maroon Bells or the San Juans. Though it's a bit harder with my current job to do that now. If someone can do that it will probably be optimal. I'd hate to have to plan a workshop at a place like North Lake just to find out it is too early or late. Of course when one place is not that great there are normally other options that are better.
Derek
Posted by David Senesac on August 28, 2010 at 1:11 AM
There is a good reason not to try and predict with any confidence what Eastern Sierra fall aspen groves will be like for 2010. As an old native California guy, there has never been a year like this in my adult lifetime. Believe me, the spring this year was a one of a kind. However we can take note of a few basic facts while we watch the fall unfold over the next couple months.
The Sierra summer has been less radical than the spring, being a bit cooler and drier than normal. However there have been a few small bouts of thunderstorms that have likely made some localized places where thunderstorm cells passed well above normal. Note I base this on musing over alot of temperature graphs at the wrcc site. As a note on the collective wisdom of photographers on boards like this, many photographers interpretted weather in Southern Californis this spring incorrectly and ended up chasing grapevine heresay thus missing some of the best:
The extraordinary amount of snow in the high country after spring ended has taken a long time to melt off so that small seasonal streams, especially off crest areas have been draining longer than usual much like during big El Nino years. I was up in the Ritter Range three weeks ago that supports that perspective. Many aspen groves grow on canyon slopes with seeps. Often that is soil, talus, and moraine debris covering bedrock. Water seeps along at several feet below at the impervious bedrock layer. Aspen appear on slopes where their roots can grow down to such depths to tap into that seeping flow. Accordingly many of those seeps have likely been active longer than usual. Ever notice how with aspen groves, trees along primary seeps are usually larger and stay green longer into the fall? And how trees on peripheral drier sites of a grove are usually smaller and the first to show signs of yellow? I doubt the cooler summer will equate to aspen turning color earlier because the kind of few degrees average per day we are talking about through most of the summer season is likely to have zero effect on when leaves start to change. Actually the cool weather has likely allowed marginal trees to be less sun dessicated.
Another thing we are seeing this summer is the jetstream across the northern hemisphere has often been stuck in static patterns for unusually lengthy periods causing some regions to be noticeably warmer, some cooler, some wetter, some drier. In the eastern Pacific, a number of small summer cold fronts have been dipping down from the Gulf of Alaska towards Oregon and northern California. If that pattern continues into late September, it might bring in some unusually cold storms early that could damage most leaves before they turn. There may be some wisdom in going early to at least get some work in. A decade ago a single exceptionally cold front came down before the fall leaf season got underway and severely limited the rest of that fall. Temps were down in the single digits overnight even near Mono Lake.
David, thanks for your interesting and well-informed comments and prognostications as always. My overly-simple observations have been that trees generally turn early mostly when they are stressed by drought or disease; and turn late mostly when weather is warm and balmy. There has been no dearth of moisture in the Sierra this year, even though the monsoon was unremarkable, due to the extensive snowpack and cool weather prolonging the melt; so I would guess the aspen won't turn early. As far as whether they will turn late, that will depend on what the temps are like right before the normal time of color change (eg late September at highest elevation, early October further downslope like around June Lake). So, too early to tell whether it will be normal or late, but I would bet against an early peak.
Predicting lottery numbers is likely easier than predicting where and when the best fall color will be. I'm sorry to hear your crystal ball is broken. Mine has a virus, so it needs its OS reinstalled. I just hope I can find the updated driver!
--P
Posted by Derek Sedillo on August 29, 2010 at 8:21 PM
Our best bet is to ask the locals as Fall actually begins. Cory Freeman was very helpful last year. He lives right there and has the benefit of watching it unfold.
- Derek
Posted by David Senesac on October 10, 2010 at 2:17 PM
Now that we are well into the fall of 2010, there is some value reflecting on our speculations. I drove over Sonora Pass Friday night hoping to work a subject high up one of the canyons north of Lee Vining. Given the exceptional amount of snow from earlier during the week that could potentially provide interesting craggy peak backgrounds, and reports from similar elevations down south at similar elevations like North Lake, I gambled the aspens might look ok.
Thus left my Subu at early dawn Saturday morning heavily dressed for the frosty 30d temps and rambled up a trail using a headlamp. Was obvious a quite heavy rain/snow had fallen everywhere in this zone of the eastside as Sonora Pass still had about a half foot of wet snow and northern exposures of high peaks showed sizeable areas with all rocks/veg covered thus well over an inch of precip. The trail was still mostly damp with signs of eroded rivulets. Bits of snow in shady spots down to lower 8k areas. Such storms often damage leaves and that was part of the gamble. Well what I found was a mix of mostly green with some yellow leaves on trees at all elevations. Even well above 9k aspen were still mostly green much like I'd expect in the third or fourth week of September. Above 8k many mostly yellow leaf trees had brown areas and the yellow translucence was more opague, both signs of the storm damage. Some areas with green leafed talus slope trees were also that opague green with brown/black spots showing similar damage. Green or yellow trees on well watered sites as those along streams were relatively unaffected. My six mile ramble didn't turn out to be totally useless as I explored a stream zone on the way back and found a sizeable cascade surrounded by creek dogwood for quite some distance. One of the best such subjects I've encountered. Dogwood were still mostly red but the shot really needed a diffuse overcast sky condition that wasn't going to happen this weekend so I bailed on the notion of simply working the area in early/late shade, took a digi info pic, and will revisit it another fall.
Back down on the roads I toured 395 some getting as far south as lower Lee Vining Creek. Lower Lee Vining, Mono, lower Lundy were very green undamaged by the storm and looked like the third week of September. Drove up Conway Summit, the Virginia Lakes Road and north on the Dunderberg Meadow Road. The Conway groves on both sides of the summit looked third week of September while groves in the distance higher up on the Copper Mountain ridge above Lundy were further along yellow/orange. North of the pass, the meadows groves were all green with some signs of cool air night sumping damage. On the lakes road at the 8350 creek crossing, lower in that grove were mostly green with some yellow while up the creek was an odd skew with lots of orange. Along the high rocky meadow road, favorite areas of red and orange trees appeared to never have reached that stage before the storm and now looked rather pathetic. Some groves appeared fine with yellows. Further north noticed similar mixed conditions. The small roadside grove of aspen east of Sonora Pass at 9k was still mostly green, healthy, with tints of yellow and orange.
Although I'd expected to spend the whole weekend working areas, I bailed mid afternoon and drove back to the Bay Area with nothing to show for the $70 of gas. By time most of the lower areas change maybe at the end of the month, there is a good change more serious storms will have visited that could close the passes. I've got so much strong material from many previous years, it is difficult to capture better material unless conditions are more ideal. Thus am not planning a second visit and instead will try and given some cloudy weekend diffuse light forecasts, get in some closer westside Pacific dogwood and black oak work as that approaches.
Discussion
13 repliesHere are my pics from last year (10/2-10/5): http://landandseaphoto.smugmug.com/Fall/Eastern-Sierra-2009/9871356_VVByo#671915091_GDTXJ
It's pretty hard to tell what kind of storms and colder weather we'll get until they are right on us. But I have noticed some workshops targeting the second week of Oct. Don't know if I'll be able to make it this year because of some family obligations. But that doesn't stop me from dreamin' about it anyway.
Derek
Paul
Natural History Wanderings
in the near future. I'll post here when I do.
Sandy
Natural History Wanderings
What we could do is start a thread for fall color reports, similar in spirit to the one on the spring bloom.
I'll post it sometime after the first of September in the 'Featured Topics' section at the top of our forum page. Does that woerk for everyone?
--P
That was a great thread last year I think it primed allot of people to get out there that might not have otherwise. The Spring Wildflower thread certainly did that for me.
Paul
In looking back it seemed like the people who caught the best conditions last year were the one's who took several smaller trips. I remember when living in CO I was able to leave the time open more or less. Then when the conditions came together I just made a kamikaze run to the Maroon Bells or the San Juans. Though it's a bit harder with my current job to do that now. If someone can do that it will probably be optimal. I'd hate to have to plan a workshop at a place like North Lake just to find out it is too early or late.
Derek
The Sierra summer has been less radical than the spring, being a bit cooler and drier than normal. However there have been a few small bouts of thunderstorms that have likely made some localized places where thunderstorm cells passed well above normal. Note I base this on musing over alot of temperature graphs at the wrcc site. As a note on the collective wisdom of photographers on boards like this, many photographers interpretted weather in Southern Californis this spring incorrectly and ended up chasing grapevine heresay thus missing some of the best:
http://www.davidsenesac.com/Spring_2010/spring_2010_p3.html
The extraordinary amount of snow in the high country after spring ended has taken a long time to melt off so that small seasonal streams, especially off crest areas have been draining longer than usual much like during big El Nino years. I was up in the Ritter Range three weeks ago that supports that perspective. Many aspen groves grow on canyon slopes with seeps. Often that is soil, talus, and moraine debris covering bedrock. Water seeps along at several feet below at the impervious bedrock layer. Aspen appear on slopes where their roots can grow down to such depths to tap into that seeping flow. Accordingly many of those seeps have likely been active longer than usual. Ever notice how with aspen groves, trees along primary seeps are usually larger and stay green longer into the fall? And how trees on peripheral drier sites of a grove are usually smaller and the first to show signs of yellow? I doubt the cooler summer will equate to aspen turning color earlier because the kind of few degrees average per day we are talking about through most of the summer season is likely to have zero effect on when leaves start to change. Actually the cool weather has likely allowed marginal trees to be less sun dessicated.
Another thing we are seeing this summer is the jetstream across the northern hemisphere has often been stuck in static patterns for unusually lengthy periods causing some regions to be noticeably warmer, some cooler, some wetter, some drier. In the eastern Pacific, a number of small summer cold fronts have been dipping down from the Gulf of Alaska towards Oregon and northern California. If that pattern continues into late September, it might bring in some unusually cold storms early that could damage most leaves before they turn. There may be some wisdom in going early to at least get some work in. A decade ago a single exceptionally cold front came down before the fall leaf season got underway and severely limited the rest of that fall. Temps were down in the single digits overnight even near Mono Lake.
David Senesac
http://www.davidsenesac.com
Predicting lottery numbers is likely easier than predicting where and when the best fall color will be. I'm sorry to hear your crystal ball is broken. Mine has a virus, so it needs its OS reinstalled. I just hope I can find the updated driver!
--P
- Derek
Thus left my Subu at early dawn Saturday morning heavily dressed for the frosty 30d temps and rambled up a trail using a headlamp. Was obvious a quite heavy rain/snow had fallen everywhere in this zone of the eastside as Sonora Pass still had about a half foot of wet snow and northern exposures of high peaks showed sizeable areas with all rocks/veg covered thus well over an inch of precip. The trail was still mostly damp with signs of eroded rivulets. Bits of snow in shady spots down to lower 8k areas. Such storms often damage leaves and that was part of the gamble. Well what I found was a mix of mostly green with some yellow leaves on trees at all elevations. Even well above 9k aspen were still mostly green much like I'd expect in the third or fourth week of September. Above 8k many mostly yellow leaf trees had brown areas and the yellow translucence was more opague, both signs of the storm damage. Some areas with green leafed talus slope trees were also that opague green with brown/black spots showing similar damage. Green or yellow trees on well watered sites as those along streams were relatively unaffected. My six mile ramble didn't turn out to be totally useless as I explored a stream zone on the way back and found a sizeable cascade surrounded by creek dogwood for quite some distance. One of the best such subjects I've encountered. Dogwood were still mostly red but the shot really needed a diffuse overcast sky condition that wasn't going to happen this weekend so I bailed on the notion of simply working the area in early/late shade, took a digi info pic, and will revisit it another fall.
Back down on the roads I toured 395 some getting as far south as lower Lee Vining Creek. Lower Lee Vining, Mono, lower Lundy were very green undamaged by the storm and looked like the third week of September. Drove up Conway Summit, the Virginia Lakes Road and north on the Dunderberg Meadow Road. The Conway groves on both sides of the summit looked third week of September while groves in the distance higher up on the Copper Mountain ridge above Lundy were further along yellow/orange. North of the pass, the meadows groves were all green with some signs of cool air night sumping damage. On the lakes road at the 8350 creek crossing, lower in that grove were mostly green with some yellow while up the creek was an odd skew with lots of orange. Along the high rocky meadow road, favorite areas of red and orange trees appeared to never have reached that stage before the storm and now looked rather pathetic. Some groves appeared fine with yellows. Further north noticed similar mixed conditions. The small roadside grove of aspen east of Sonora Pass at 9k was still mostly green, healthy, with tints of yellow and orange.
Although I'd expected to spend the whole weekend working areas, I bailed mid afternoon and drove back to the Bay Area with nothing to show for the $70 of gas. By time most of the lower areas change maybe at the end of the month, there is a good change more serious storms will have visited that could close the passes. I've got so much strong material from many previous years, it is difficult to capture better material unless conditions are more ideal. Thus am not planning a second visit and instead will try and given some cloudy weekend diffuse light forecasts, get in some closer westside Pacific dogwood and black oak work as that approaches.