This is jumping the gun a bit, since it aint a total given just yet, but Mon night->Tuesday is looking more an more like a good ol- fashioned March snowstorm, something to celebrate since we havent had many to celebrate in the lowlands this Winter (well, i may have to drive through it, so that tempers my celebration ) All the ingredients are there for a serious burial, just need for everything to fall into place...
Just a heads up in case you need to call in sick....er i mean take a vacation day round about Wednesday sunrise...
Posted by Jim Bennett on March 4, 2011 at 10:35 PM
Yeah, according to AccuWeather, we might get all of one inch from that storm Monday and Tuesday, just like the 2-3 inches we were supposed to get today! It's hard to not be cynical after the weather forecast track record this season...
Actually Stan, I hope that you are right.
Forecasting the weather in the front range is not an easy thing, thats for sure. We had rain/snow in Pueblo today, if it had been 3-4 degrees cooler we would have ended up with 4+ inches.
You got me curious, Jim, so though i never look at accuweather i pulled up their site, and they have a video forecast that predicts 2-4 inches for Denver. Thats called being very conservative, which is somewhat understandable since we get clobbered everytime we cry 'wolf' and end up wrong. But i think they are doing a diservice in this case because there is the potential for them to be very wrong, to the tune of 12 inches or so... It's really pretty foolish to give an amount or even range at this point (but i will anyways) It could all look dramatically different when the computer forecasts come out tomorrow. Im just betting from experience that even if the computer forecasts back off to some extent, this will still be a worthwhile event to prepare for.
I can be wrong here but there are few repurcussions if i am (other than Erik making fun of me) the advantage i have here is that i can explain my excitement and not have to just give a specific snow amount. Im excited cause this is clearly a strong storm, and it is clearly going to hit, the only questions are how hard and where exactly the hardest. A 50 mile shift in the storm track could mean huge changes to the amounts for a spot like Denver or Springs. Ive been wanting to get some really snowy shots of the Pikes Peak region all Winter, and there just hasnt been many if any ops this whole Winter. This looks the best bet to me so far. If i could get away with it, id say there is better than 50% chance that Denver will get 10 inches or more. But im not a conservative guy, and my mind might change tomorrow...
Posted by Art Escobado on March 5, 2011 at 1:30 AM
As I feared, the computer models are beginning to back off the favorable storm track that looked so good yesterday, so reaslistically I should revise my 50% statement for Denver to be for over 6 inches--but i wont, im sticking to my guns Conceptually it still looks like a good storm and im reasonably certain it will be worth getting out late tuesday or Wed morn for some shots--unfortunately it looks faster than yesterday which may mean too much clearing for Wed sunrise, but still looks like a good time to be out.
Posted by Jim Bennett on March 5, 2011 at 11:12 PM
What I find amusing on the AccuWeather site is when their video prediction is so different from their daily forecasts! Last night the video said 2-4 inches, but the daily showed only a total of about 1 inch. Of course tonight, the video now shows 4-8 inches, with the daily totals adding up to 3-6 inches. At least they're closer this time.
Since I don't have any plans on Tuesday or Wednesday, I now need to think of someplace to go other than my usual Roxborough locations. Of course, that's assuming that we don't end up with just another dusting...
For those that may be interested, here's the link to the NWS weather discussion site that I find is usually more useful than the other weather sites: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOU&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
That was a good discussion by Denver. If you ever read the Pueblo ones, just look for my last name and youll know which ones are overhyped
I think this storm is gonna come down to the wire--probably wont have a real good idea of how much to expect until monday morning--and it hits monday afternoon! The only thing im strongly confident of is that Pikes Peak area will get more than the garbage storms we've been getting all Winter--and that's good enough for me! Todd? Morris? Got 4WD??
Thanks for the heads up, Stan.
I'm going to work Monday morning after a short vacation to Phoenix, so I'm due for a bit of a "weather shock". Looks like I might have an adventure driving back to Colorado Springs on Tuesday morning, but a detour to GOTG might be in order.
Sadly, the storm is just coming in too quickly, and doesnt strengthen until its exited CO. Looks like i was overly optimistic. The folks in NW KS will have fun... At least ill be able to drive to Springs w/o using chains...
Hgwy 50 from Canon City to Montrose looks like the winner here. If i had the time id head for Black Canyon.
Posted by Bob Falcone on March 7, 2011 at 12:34 AM
Stan, I just read the latest advisory calling for 4-8" around here...is that still a good estimate?
Its good i think for the southern areas, wind will be east to south. Maybe a little less for the north. GOG is kind of on the line--i think they should get a few inches at least, which should be good enough for some good pics, although unfortunatley looks like the clearing will occur tuesday rather than wednesday morning. Im trying to decide between the Ramparts and the Wets/Westcliffe. The latter will get more snow, maybe a foot or more, but i really would like to get up to Pikes Peak cause i havent had a chance really all winter.
Oh well, looks like a bust. Such is this sucky Winter for our area. Southern mountains still should get some decent snow, but overall a major dissapointment....
Yeah, everything was looking just fine until you had to make a big deal about it and jinxed it!!! I even went into my garage today and waxed my car just to help counter-act the jinx, but I don't think it's going to work.
Yes, this winter has really sucked and the long-range forecast looks no better.
Nope, I fully confess that my original hype was largely wish-casting and not based on any solid reasoning. It's so rare i get a day off after snow that i began hallucinating flakes At least the southern mountains got some decent totals, about 6-8 inches so far. There's storms coming in again by next weekend but they all look too weak and too far to the north--just aint a good looking pattern for March. Ah well...
Discussion
21 repliesJust a heads up in case you need to call in sick....er i mean take a vacation day round about Wednesday sunrise...
Actually Stan, I hope that you are right.
Likelihood of a great sunset/sunrise.
Possibility of hoar frost.
Overcast/Cloudy/Clear.
You got me curious, Jim, so though i never look at accuweather i pulled up their site, and they have a video forecast that predicts 2-4 inches for Denver. Thats called being very conservative, which is somewhat understandable since we get clobbered everytime we cry 'wolf' and end up wrong. But i think they are doing a diservice in this case because there is the potential for them to be very wrong, to the tune of 12 inches or so... It's really pretty foolish to give an amount or even range at this point (but i will anyways) It could all look dramatically different when the computer forecasts come out tomorrow. Im just betting from experience that even if the computer forecasts back off to some extent, this will still be a worthwhile event to prepare for.
I can be wrong here but there are few repurcussions if i am (other than Erik making fun of me) the advantage i have here is that i can explain my excitement and not have to just give a specific snow amount. Im excited cause this is clearly a strong storm, and it is clearly going to hit, the only questions are how hard and where exactly the hardest. A 50 mile shift in the storm track could mean huge changes to the amounts for a spot like Denver or Springs. Ive been wanting to get some really snowy shots of the Pikes Peak region all Winter, and there just hasnt been many if any ops this whole Winter. This looks the best bet to me so far. If i could get away with it, id say there is better than 50% chance that Denver will get 10 inches or more. But im not a conservative guy, and my mind might change tomorrow...
I'm surprised at the amout of time it is correct.
Since I don't have any plans on Tuesday or Wednesday, I now need to think of someplace to go other than my usual Roxborough locations. Of course, that's assuming that we don't end up with just another dusting...
For those that may be interested, here's the link to the NWS weather discussion site that I find is usually more useful than the other weather sites: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOU&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
I think this storm is gonna come down to the wire--probably wont have a real good idea of how much to expect until monday morning--and it hits monday afternoon! The only thing im strongly confident of is that Pikes Peak area will get more than the garbage storms we've been getting all Winter--and that's good enough for me! Todd? Morris? Got 4WD??
I'm going to work Monday morning after a short vacation to Phoenix, so I'm due for a bit of a "weather shock". Looks like I might have an adventure driving back to Colorado Springs on Tuesday morning, but a detour to GOTG might be in order.
Hgwy 50 from Canon City to Montrose looks like the winner here. If i had the time id head for Black Canyon.
Yes, this winter has really sucked and the long-range forecast looks no better.