Posted by Karl Buiter on August 24, 2012 at 6:02 PM
Seems a theme this year, considering the early wildflower season and how that may suggest an early fall.
I personally did not know the science so I checked.
What drought might do - "Drought stress during the growing season can sometimes trigger the early formation of the abscission layer, and leaves may drop before they have a chance to develop fall coloration." (http://www.usna.usda.gov/PhotoGallery/FallFoliage/ScienceFallColor.html). There is also a hint that it may reduce budding for next year - but its unclear in the article.
Of interest, in another article a forester in Missouri suggests that sunny days in the 60's and nights in the 40's late in the season may actually improve color as sugars that produce the leaf-coloring agent can get trapped in the leaves. http://www.columbiamissourian.com/stories/2011/09/22/trees-are-changing-colors-fall-approaches/
During the US Pro Challenge Cycle race this week all over the mid and southern Colorado Rockies, I watched the course-wide scenery on the Internet coverage. I only saw a couple flushes of bright yellow on top of the 12k passes - very isolated against everything else green. Lower, I could not tell if some areas were just light green.
Karl, it's definitely getting started up high with the tundra and other plants. A noticeable change from just 1-2 weeks ago. And, I was driving down a road at about 6300' today that had ground covers and other plants with fall color. Could be a very interesting year for sure. And, I'm leaning toward early also, but I have been known to be wrong occasionally. I am right 97% of the time, and I don't even care about the other 4%.
I'm not making the trip to CO this year; going to Scotland instead. But if I were doing a CO trip, I'd still plan for the normal time - late Sept to early/mid Oct. Every year it seems there are reports of early colors, and I think most often it just turns out to be an isolated area that got a jump on things, and everything else trends as it normally does.
If people adjust plans to show up early and nothing is far along, there's not much you can do at that point. If people plan for the normal schedule, even if things did get started early, there will be plenty that's peaking and you can adjust plans accordingly.
Posted by Joe Rogers on August 24, 2012 at 6:43 PM
I had no clue the first year I traveled to Co. I got there so late that the only color was lower elevation cottenwoods. Guess what..I still had a ball and got some great shots. There is always plenty to see and do.
Joe Rogers
I have a feeling a few areas will peak early this year but overall color should still last around the same date range.
Posted by Karl Buiter on August 24, 2012 at 7:52 PM
Interesting replies.
Yep, forgot to note the article mentioned that plants use length of day/night to start the fall cycle.
My concern is the implied reading that the growing season affects budding for next year - so could it be that next year we'll see the impact of what happened this year?
Joe - absolutely, last year I went to the San Juans early (scheduling conflicts) and while I hoped to get some color, and did - the big surprise was a snowstorm. I had fun!
Posted by Bill Bean on August 24, 2012 at 11:16 PM
I don't know if it's going to be early but I can tell you this: I drive past Castlewood Canyon every work day of my life and the scrub oaks are changing and not too many days away from peak. This is at least 2 weeks ahead of "normal."
Posted by Tom Stermitz on August 24, 2012 at 11:38 PM
I had no clue the first year I traveled to Co. I got there so late that the only color was lower elevation cottenwoods. Guess what..I still had a ball and got some great shots. There is always plenty to see and do.
Joe Rogers
Joe makes a good point. Cottonwood colors are later, and are more present at lower altitudes. Gambel's Oak has great color later into the season. Can still be good in late October even as the Aspe are losing their leaves.
Posted by Mark Stahlke on August 25, 2012 at 12:24 AM
I was at Seven Sister Lakes (~12,500 ft.) last weekend and only saw hints of autumn in the tundra. It still looked like summer down lower. By the way, Seven Sisters is worth the hike.
Posted by Mark Stahlke on August 26, 2012 at 1:41 PM
"Chris Forman, Aspen's city forester, says... stressed trees and could mean an early and shorter color season."
"But Jim Kravitz with the Aspen Center for Environmental Studies... predicts the trees' color will peak the third week of September, which is the time it typically occurs. "
Posted by Doug Koepsel on August 27, 2012 at 12:02 AM
Discussion
10 repliesI personally did not know the science so I checked.
What drought might do - "Drought stress during the growing season can sometimes trigger the early formation of the abscission layer, and leaves may drop before they have a chance to develop fall coloration." (http://www.usna.usda.gov/PhotoGallery/FallFoliage/ScienceFallColor.html). There is also a hint that it may reduce budding for next year - but its unclear in the article.
Of interest, in another article a forester in Missouri suggests that sunny days in the 60's and nights in the 40's late in the season may actually improve color as sugars that produce the leaf-coloring agent can get trapped in the leaves. http://www.columbiamissourian.com/stories/2011/09/22/trees-are-changing-colors-fall-approaches/
During the US Pro Challenge Cycle race this week all over the mid and southern Colorado Rockies, I watched the course-wide scenery on the Internet coverage. I only saw a couple flushes of bright yellow on top of the 12k passes - very isolated against everything else green. Lower, I could not tell if some areas were just light green.
Some others have had early reports.
Guess we'll know in a few weeks.
If people adjust plans to show up early and nothing is far along, there's not much you can do at that point. If people plan for the normal schedule, even if things did get started early, there will be plenty that's peaking and you can adjust plans accordingly.
Joe Rogers
Yep, forgot to note the article mentioned that plants use length of day/night to start the fall cycle.
My concern is the implied reading that the growing season affects budding for next year - so could it be that next year we'll see the impact of what happened this year?
Joe - absolutely, last year I went to the San Juans early (scheduling conflicts) and while I hoped to get some color, and did - the big surprise was a snowstorm. I had fun!
Joe makes a good point. Cottonwood colors are later, and are more present at lower altitudes. Gambel's Oak has great color later into the season. Can still be good in late October even as the Aspe are losing their leaves.
"Chris Forman, Aspen's city forester, says... stressed trees and could mean an early and shorter color season."
"But Jim Kravitz with the Aspen Center for Environmental Studies... predicts the trees' color will peak the third week of September, which is the time it typically occurs. "
http://www.mycolorado.org/fall_drives.html